Tragedy of the Commons

I was reading about the Western Ghats declared a 'Natural heritage by UNESCO' around the same time The Economist wrote a brilliant 14 page article on the 'The Melting Arctic' last week, and felt there was so much in common between the two. A decision on comparing the two started forming.

So, despite the fact that we are heading towards an unavoidable 2 degree rise, our Himalayan glaciers will soon stop manufacturing our water, not to mention parts of Greenland crashing in 2005 and raising the water level etc. there is still no action happening. Wake up calls have come and gone, but business-as-usual and politics carries on.

Our Western Ghats are the oldest ecosystem in India extending 1,50,000 km (almost) snake-like from Maharashtra upto Kerala ending at Kanyakumari; a treasure trove of wildlife, plants, water, providing valuable services like water, food, carbon sequestration and climate stabilisation. Yet, the state governments of the south choose to reject the UNESCO tag because it will come in the way of their 'treasure hunting'.
Environmentalists, experts, grassroots individuals rejoiced when UNESCO announced the good news a week ago, only left baffled when Karnataka and Kerala governments announced they want the tag off. The Western Ghats is an extraordinary natural heritage of the world, occupying only 6% of India's land surface and holds more than 30% of wildlife species hundreds of endemic medicinal plants. Most importantly it is the birthplace of the river Cauvery which provides water for Karnataka, Kerala and forms catchment areas for a large number of smaller rivers to settlements. Home to over 200 million people who depend upon this biodiversity rich resource for their livelihood and home.

The Arctic region today is probably one of the biggest goldmine's in the 21st century. The presence of hydrocarbons provides huge oil reservoirs in the ocean and experts have found rock deposits on the sea bed which contain precious metals like gold. This is bad, bad news for the Arctic region. With greedy western nations already depleting their own oil reserves and creating much of the global warming, no part of the world seems likely to be spared. The north cap has been largely undiscovered and little knowledge is known being an extremely cold region and virtually inhospitable to access. However, with the ice melt in recent years this land of unknown is slowly transforming without adequate knowledge of what is going to happen. With melting ice, and rising sea levels who knows what is in store for us over the years if this continues.

I was asked recently that development cannot take place without the environment being sacrificed, but if we continue to dig up our Western Ghats and Arctic ice forever the environment will have nothing left for us, and the lasting effect it can have on our ecosystems will be devastating. Wildlife species, depletion of water reserves, and complete and total disregard of the planet will put us in grave future. 


The Western Ghats have faced a lot of destruction which have led to increase in temperatures, man-animal conflict and community dispute. The Arctic is home to many endemic species like the Western Ghats and these creatures will suffer with their food and natural habitat depleting because of two reasons - Ice melt and human interference. Many species in the Western Ghats have not been discovered as yet owing to high density, and many fear are extinct due to mining activities. In the Arctic permafrost in some areas go upto a depth of hundred kilometres, this solid ice contains stored methane and carbon twice the amount already present in the atmosphere. Scientists fear that activities are already stirring this sleeping giant and can prove catastrophic if let loose. The Western Ghats and Arctic region play a huge ecological role in terms of weather and climate control as well, the Arctic is 14,056,000 square km big and melting at a fast pace since warming takes place twice as fast as the rest of the world.


With an uncertain future of our natural reserves and unique wildlife systems, the greatest tragedy of our commons is already taking place if immediate action is not taken to protect ourselves and generations after us to enjoy what we have today.   


By Kavya Chandra

And Revathi did not come

Summer has descended upon the subcontinent .
The cities, towns, plains, and the once salubrious hill stations are heating up.
The days are hot, the nights are still. There is no escape.
It is immutable.Everyone waits for  rain. The Malnad is ready to receive her.

Even the beautiful Coffea Arabica  bud is ready. It awaits Revathi ,the pre-monsoon shower.  Revathi, the giver of life, the nurturer.In the wilderness of the Malnad will Revathi keep her date ? But this year she is late again. Her timely arrival is important. For some its life .For some its business as usual. Her arrival announces that the South West Monsoon is on its way.Her drizzle enhances the coffee bloom .The coffee farmer waits in anticipation.  She brings the Malnad back to life.

This year the temperatures in the Malnad touched 36 degrees  against a normal temperature  of 33-34 degrees Celsius. Apart from this higher than normal temperature, there has been a dry spell of  nearly 5 months in the coffee growing areas that is affecting coffee production. But Revathi did not come.

The  dry spell  and the high temperatures are worrying the farmers, specially in the areas that lack irrigation facilities. Coffee production in India is about 300 years old and largely occurs on small, family-owned farms - majority being up to 2.5 acres. The occurrence of irregular and unseasonal rain,  extreme weather events - have started to take its toll on India's coffee.The hard ,dark brown coffee bean belies the fact that the coffee crop is acutely sensitive and like most crops is sensitive to rain. A long-term increase in the number of extreme and unseasonal rainfall events has lowered crop yields, threatening the livelihood of those dependant on this sector .Coffee has seen a decline in its productions in the last couple of years. In fact the magnitude of this decline is quite astounding .Yields have declined almost 10% since 2000.

In the year 2009  both Arabica and Robusta suffered losses due to unseasonal heavy rains.Likewise, heavy rains during the blossoming delayed the harvest and lowered crop quality in 2010. There have been periods of drought  In 2002, Karnataka experienced a severe drought for three consecutive years (2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04). The IPCC on Climate Change predicts that yields from rain-dependant agriculture could be down by 50% by 2020 . In the Coorg region, some areas have already seen rainfall drop by one-third – from 106 inches per year to 70 inches.

The problem with today’s economy is that we have become obsessed by  the idea of "GDP growth” - which seems to be the single most important measure for success. A green economy is the only sustaining economy - it put values on natural resources, it uses resources sparingly, makes use of its natural capital rather than wasting it and stands committed to environmental protection.Our current GDP models do not recognise the role of natural capital.There is a lot that needs to change. Unless the economic importance of biodiversity and ecosystems, of ecology and forests, not just among economists, but at the level of policy makers, administrators, businesses and the public is understood,the wait for Revathi will get longer.

by Viva Kermani

An Extraordinary Journey

By Kavya Chandra


Pushpanath aka ‘Push’ as he is fondly known stands out from the crowd with his bushy white-black hair, calm expression and radiating energy. A charismatic man, Push is someone who is driven by passion, love for the outdoors, storytelling and believes actions speak for themselves.


An amazing and difficult journey undertaken in November 2011 by Push who walked 550 kilometers from Chikmagalur (north belt of Karnataka) to Mysore for 16 days in his fight for climate justice. His message was simple, “India is feeling the pain of climate change, when a child is ill his mother applies a wet cloth to his forehead, similarly India is getting hot but the world leaders at Durban are too busy fighting over the colour of the cloth”. Words simple, yet impactful.

This is the second walk by Push who walked from Oxford to Copenhagen in 2009 as a run-up to the Copenhagen summit carrying the same message to world leaders in Copenhagen. He has travelled far and wide over the past 16 years as a global campaigner for climate action, seen the sufferings of the poor in African countries, experienced poverty faced by children in South Asia and witnessed women in developing countries bear the full brunt of climate conflict.


A follower of Gandhi and a radical at heart, Push says that the Dandi March inspired him to walk, ‘‘It is the simplest thing anyone can do, if you feel strongly about something walking is the best way to express yourself’’. 


Similarly this year, Push takes a message to our world leaders who recently wounded up the Durban meeting, “Stop pushing around papers on the desk and playing with people’s lives, its time to stop acting politically and start actual ground work, you have the power to set an example, act, and be remembered in history for facing one of the biggest challenges of man”.

During the walk Push received unstinting and overwhelming support from The Karnataka Growers’ Federation (KGF); a mother body of top coffee growers and planters in the state and world. Push’s journey began in Chikmagalur from Baba Budangir, across many small towns passing the heart of Coorg (commonly known as coffee country) and finally Mysore. Every town welcomed him like a hero, garlands and flowers were thrown, firecrackers burnt with lots of band baja and dance. It felt like a wedding only absentees the bride and groom. The locals graciously put him up every night at each passing town, prepared delicious Coorg cuisine and opened their hearts and homes to Push supporting him till the very end. Children listened to him, danced with him, and hugged him, shouting ‘Chalo Durban’. One unforgetful memory was when a small child of 7 removed him shoes and walked 8 km with Push. Coffee growers, local activists, self help groups from all over the state came to meet Push, tell him their stories and problems with changing climate, some of them being with him till the very end.

Push personally reached out to 30,000 people in the course of 16 days and lakhs more through media. He walked 2, 25, 00,000 steps totally and was widely covered by the media in Karnataka especially in local towns of Chikmagalur and Coorg, Mysore and Bangalore.

‘‘These kinds of stories are the inspiration for us all... to do what we do!!! For today,and the generations to come!”
- Marc Matheiu, Hindustan Unilever


“One day your name will be the reason of the change in the world, your name might appear even in HISTORY textbooks as “the soul cause of our change”
- Dhruvi, High school student


"You’ve not only accomplished an astonishing personal physical achievement, but raised awareness on climate change and fired the imagination of all those you have come into contact with. With your example they will surely think that anything is possible!"
- Malini Mehra, CEO,Centre for Social Markets (CSM)


Visit Pushpanath's blog on http://gopushgo.com/

Whose Money Is It Anyways?

By Viva Kermani

I am not an economist. Neither do I subscribe to The Financial Times nor to The Economist. Nor do I care to seriously read  any of the salmon colored newspapers.

 Despite all of this, I am amazed at how, in the very recent past, there has been a flood of articles, op-eds, stories, blog posts, tweets and re-tweets on the rise in income inequality.  Outrage seems to be on how we have allowed capitalism to grow into the form that it is today - which is killing equality, destroying the world’s ecology  and causing severe environmental degradation .The manner in which there is an overzealousness in  natural resource exploitation , one would imagine that  our natural capital is here for us to last till perpetuity.

The rise of disparity of incomes is not limited to countries such as India, where there has been a history of  stark inequality, but the rise of income inequality is growing notoriously in developed countries such as the US and UK. A recent study done in the US showed that the top 1% households' income grew by 275% - this is just one revealing statistics – there is a lot  more data out there to show that more wealth is shifting to fewer  people, with few bankers having a disproportionate control  over the economy.  As a recent New York Times article puts it – it has been the era of the rise of the super rich. If not the ultra-rich.

Forbes annually tallies the fortunes of the world’s billionaires. The world’s 1,210 current billionaires, Forbes reported in March 2011, hold a combined wealth that equals over half the total wealth of the 3.01 billion adults around the world.  Something is seriously going wrong. Despite India s economy growing anywhere between 7% and 8 % in the last few years, income inequality has doubled in 20 years. Surely, GDP growth cannot be the only measure of development and progress or for that matter prosperity.

Nevertheless, why is all this happening? What are we missing that is driving this rapaciousness? Is it because of our inability to perceive the difference between public benefits and private profits?

I have come to see this polarisation more acutely and closely over the last 12 months in my work with the Karnataka Growers Federation.   I have been working extensively with the small to medium-sized coffee farmer in the southern state of Karnataka. Coffee is now big business in India.  According to India’s Coffee Board, domestic consumption has been witnessing a steady growth of five to six per cent in the last five years. And we can see this – almost all of urban India today is dotted with coffee bars. Coffee is the preferred choice for the upwardly mobile and uber cool. With the ubiquitous Café Coffee Day, Baristas, Costa Coffee, and the much awaited entry of the more expensive Starbucks into India, the latte and cappuccino are here to stay.

The world has been gulping down so much coffee that  it is now the second most globally traded commodity after oil.  But coffee is one of the few internationally traded commodities that is still mainly produced not on large estates or plantations but on small holdings. The economies of the some of the poorest countries are highly dependent on trade in coffee –in some African countries like Ethiopia and Burundi -but the producer today hardly makes a living from his or her coffee bean, given their small holdings – the majority being anywhere between 2.5 acres  to10 acres.

 The story is no different in India. Contrary to popular perception, 98.5% of coffee growers in India are small farmers. Today India produces 4.5% of the world’s coffee. This is good news – to some.

The bad news is that coffee is produced by 90 countries globally but consumed by just 40 countries. The global coffee trade today is close to USD 96 billion. Of this USD 96 billion trade, a meagre USD 8 billion comes back to coffee-producing countries. There is not a chance in hell that the farmer, who produces coffee on say a  10 acre holding, has any control on the market prices or access to any share of this mega profit. The producer s share of this profit is unusually low while the usual suspects in between and at the end, laugh all the way to bank. The world’s big four coffee roasters  also have big coffee brands – and therefore enjoy huge margins - while the producer benefits the least. Squeezing the small farmer for the lowest possible price – in the long run is a bad business idea – it will drive the coffee farmer out of business.

Coupled with no control over prices, there is another challenge facing the farmer today – that of unseasonal rain and unpredictable weather patterns. Whilst climate change is just one of numerous factors that may affect global coffee production, the International Coffee Organization considers it will likely be one of the most important ones with smallholders (who produce the majority of the world's coffee) the most vulnerable group.  In Karnataka, the state that produces about 70% of India’s coffee, there were 3 years of continuous drought during the coffee season from 2002 to 2005 followed by heavy rainfall in 2006 and 2007. This lead to severe infestation of pest and disease, like stem borer and leaf rust, which resulted in huge crop loss.  For the first time we heard of suicides among coffee farmers.

When it comes to coffee, India is unique. It is the only country on the world map that grows  all its coffee in the shade. Indian coffee is  grown in forest like conditions –verdant and rich in biodiversity. India also grows both the varieties of coffee – Arabica (Coffea Arabica) and Robusta(Coffea robusta). Arabica is high-end coffee – it is rich and yet delicate in flavour and therefore  commands a higher price.  Robusta is the low-end variety – it  is hardier but commands a lower price. One would think that Indian farmers would want to grow Arabica and get a higher price for their coffee bean. But sadly the trend is the reverse. Arabica-growing farmers instead are opting out of this highly-flavoured cherry to grow the Robusta variety (which requires less care), partly because the Arabica plant cannot stand up to climate variability and unpredictable weather patterns.  And this is the other thing – we are now drinking more and more coffee but of less and less quality.  

So whether Arabica survives or not, or whether farmers only grow Robusta because they have to, I know that if Baba Budan were around today, he would have probably been a very rich man.

For the love of coffee

 By: Viva Kermani


Before the Café Coffee Days, there was Baba Budan and his 7 coffee beans.

Coffee arabica plant and seed

Baba Budan, a 17th century Sufi Saint, smuggled 7 coffee beans into India from Yemen, thereby, part breaking the Arab monopoly over coffee. The story goes that Baba Budan smuggled out 7 coffee beans from Al Muckha (Mocha), a port city in Yemen. Between the 15th and 17th century, Mocha was the main market place for coffee trading. It is from this Red Sea port of Mocha, that the English word mocha has its origin.

While the earliest history of coffee goes back to antiquity - there is evidence that point to the existence of the coffee plant in 13th century Ethiopia. Till the mid 17th century or so, the Arab rulers enjoyed their monopoly over coffee. They did what they could to ensure that the cultivation did not spread – so they would strip the bean of its outer layer, roast it  and render it infertile. They banned the export of the coffee bean – it could be taken out only if it was boiled or roasted so as to prevent the bean from germinating. Coffee had been colonized.

This is why Baba Budan, an Indian pilgrim to Mecca, had to smuggle his 7 beans out of Yemen. It was not just Baba Budan who broke the coffee colonization, there was fierce competition between the European colonizers to get hold of coffee. It was the Dutch who in the late 17th century first managed to get some seeds and attempted to grow coffee in their colonies.   The Dutch were by now already growing some coffee in the Malabar region of India as well as in their other far eastern colonies.  And before you knew, the British started coffee plantations in Jamaica -the rest is cruel ,colonial  history.


There are myriads of stories of how coffee found its way out of Arabia and how it was transported by colonizers, travelers, wanderers, investors ,missionaries   and traders  – with the rise in the demand for coffee, came a rise in the demand for sugar, both becoming important commodities. Coffee was a commodity that formed part of the trade triangle – from England to Africa to the Americas. Coffee houses sprang up and became meeting places and were centers of social interaction.


But behind all this energy and movement, the story is really not sweet. The well-known coffee historian, Antony Wild, in his book “Coffee :  A Dark History”, takes us to the early days of the history of coffee, on how the, European merchants came across it in Arabia and brought it to Europe. Soon hugely popular, they quickly realized that they could make more money if they planted coffee themselves, in their plantations, using slave labour in their tropical, colonial outposts. Coffee was now on its way to becoming global – from the colonies in Caribbean to  the colonies in Java – coffee was leaving its footprint.


As Antony Wild says, this is the legacy of coffee – tropical countries produce it and rich countries drink it. Even today this legacy is almost true . Quite unlike tea – countries that produce tea mostly drink it.


Meanwhile, on his return to India, after Mecca, Baba Budan planted the Arabica  beans in the hills of Chandragiri, situated in today's Chikmagalur district of Karnataka– and thus is the story of the birth of Indian coffee. Today ,India produces almost 4.5% of the world’s coffee, grown mostly by small and medium growers, and is grown mostly in the three main Southern States of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, with Karnataka contributing to 72% of what is grown. (A little bit is also grown in the Northeast and Andhra Pradesh). With the rise of urban India there is a rise in coffee shops – coffee bars are becoming ubiquitous in urban India.


The once less known South Indian filter "kaapi" , served piping hot in steel tumbler with a small dabarah (cannot find a similar word in English) for cooling, has now morphed into  cappuccinos and lattés , finding its way onto menus across India’s burgeoning cities and youth.


India’s coffee is both special and unique  - right from its planting to its traditional style of drinking.  And that is really the idea behind this blog post. It is not to re-tell the well known but bitter history of coffee but more to inform about its current crisis and uncertain future.


Indian coffee is the finest shade growing coffee in the world and it is rare because all the coffee grown in India ,is grown in natural conditions , is dependant on monsoon rain and thrives in shade growing areas. There are close to 250,000 coffee planters in India – of which 98% are small farmers, cultivating on less than 10 hectares. There is almost no mechanization – it is labour intensive , employing about 2 million people  directly thereby generating rural livelihood.


Drive through any coffee growing district in South India – From Coorg to Chikmagalur and what you will discover are verdant coffee forests, acres of coffee estates full of all kinds of   trees with coffee growing under a thick canopy of natural shade, often mixed with ginger, pepper and vanilla . With most of the  coffee estates located in the Western Ghats, coffee forests are located in biodiversity hotspots that have a high level of endemism, bio diversity and wide array of flora and fauna. From Indian mahogany, to teak and  sandalwood , to the silver oak, and white cedar, trees stand majestically  tall . It is almost as if the forests nurture and protect the coffee berries  . Maintaining forests ensure a healthy coffee crop and the coffee planters almost has a sacred relationship with nature. There are wide species of  butterflies and birds . Protected wildlife parks often dot the region. Elephants wander about, sometimes destroying coffee plants  - the  famous langur, slender loris, ,spotted deer are some of the animals that live in the region.


And here’s the other thing – five major South Indian rivers have its origin in coffee estates, the most popular one being the  River Cauvery -that starts in the coffee growing region of Coorg.  Here the river is venerated and worshipped as Goddess Cauvery – as a protector of their land.  Coffee is so closely linked to the elements – and over time the coffee growers have developed  a deep tradition to preserve   rivers and forests.


But the picture is not  about the sweet fragrance of the coffee plant in bloom or misty rolling mountains. It is about a rapid change in climate that has resulted in rising temperatures and unseasonal  rains , sometimes heavier rainfalls , periods of   drought and flooding ,prolonged higher day time temperatures and sudden drop in night time temperature – all climatic impacts  that have resulted in lowered yields that are making coffee cultivation almost economically unviable.  There is a growing need to invest in technology to adapt to changing and unpredictable weather patterns but since the farmer is small, these are not always accessible or possible. There is a shift that is taking place. Slowly growers are selling their estates, part by part, the price the land fetches for the timber it holds, is more profitable than cultivating coffee in a climate changing world. More worrying is that there are no takers in the next generation as high profits on coffee cultivation start to dim.


So is coffee all about  about cash and commerce ? Is its  value limited to   commodity indices  and high menu prices? Does no one recognize its intrinsic value and its role in maintaining  biodiversity, acting as a carbon sink, globally sequestering about 6 billion kgs of carbon,  and  conserving wildlife and ecosystems ?The value of coffee lies way beyond  its economic price tag – its value in providing ecological services is indeed priceless.


During my recent visit to Chikmagalur, I met a coffee planter who said that he himself had personally planted over 100,000 trees in his life time –  this was way before the world was hot on climate change , carbon trading and clean development mechanism. And standing on his coffee estate I thought to myself - indeed these small planters are not Gordon Gekko s children !


The silent coffee planter that protects India s rich biodiversity and forests, does not need   a trading mechanism to protect our natural resources and create a better world. What he needs is for his voice to be heard while a different crisis brews.

It is indeed time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Rig the Climate

By: Viva Kermani 

The climate denial lobby is beginning to look really silly. It creates loonies out of people -the most recent one - Lord Monckton - who claims that climate change, is a conspiracy, a new flag of the left and rebukes the very idea of global warming.

For someone who has no training in science whatsoever to discount the IPCC s body of some 800 scientists, he is irresponsible and certifiable. The science is now loud and clear - warming of the earth is unequivocal and there is no doubt that much of the change in climate is due to human induced action.

Scientists at NASA-GISS have confirmed that the first six months of 2010 have set a global temperature record. But I am not going to write about the vicissitudes of climate change of my generation or the politics that world leaders has been engaged in over the last decade to try to solve the climate crisis or what is the planet we are leaving behind. It has been about 2 decades since the Earth Summit in Rio and we are still struggling for an agreement to protect our planet and its ecosystems, its forest, water tables, atmosphere, oceans and mountains.

In the last 50 years or so millions have been spent in UN conventions, declarations and pledges for environmental protection. While we may have failed the earth in the last 100 years or so – there were some who paid it glorious tribute 5000 years ago. The best tribute ever paid to the environment can be found in the Vedas.
 

The Vedas are considered the most sacred books for Hindus. The word Veda means “wisdom”. There are 4 Vedas .The Rig Veda, the Sama Veda, the Yajur Veda and the Atharva Veda. The Rig Veda , a collection of hymns ,are the most ancient of all Hindu texts, probably about 5000 years old but codified much later.This is concerned with the worship of gods that are largely personifications of the powers of nature. The Rig Veda contains the most popular mantra , the Gayatri mantra. I don’t know any Indian who does not know the Gayatri Mantra – it’s the mother of all mantras.

Aum Bhoor Bhuwah Swaha

Tat Savitur Varenyam
 

Bhargo Devasaya Dheemahi

Dhiyo Yo Naha Prachodayat





There are various interpretations of this simple mantra - I do not wish to go into the existential meaning of this mantra, its metaphor or its esoteric meaning.I am no expert in Sankrit or ancient texts. Not at all and cannot even remotely claim to be. But this much I know -when I do a word to word break down of the Gayatri Mantra it is telling me something – a prayer to the "giver of light and life" - the sun (savitur). Its power remains unchallenged and unrivalled. It is not only the Rig Veda that pays tribute to nature.

There are 63 mantras of Atharva Veda (12.1.1. to 12.1.63) pertain to Hymns to the Earth, which glorifies Mother Earth. The Rig Veda regards trees and plants as possessing healing properties. Tree planting is considered a religious duty.

So ecology is not a modern day science that was started in Europe. Its root can be found in our ancient texts and its modern day manifestation in the Chipko Movement that began in the early 70’s in the Garwhal – where villagers formed a human chain and hugged trees marked to be cut down for the development of a sports equipment factory. Since then, the movement has grown as a ecological movement. So while world leaders break their heads over complex documents on carbon emissions,legal frameworks,binding targets,offsetting, de-forestation and afforestation, Indian Rishis understood this 5000 years ago but instead,chose to express it through beautiful, 4 line hymns - that are still chanted today.

Equity versus atmospheric carbon space

By: Kaavya Nag

For as long as countries have come together to talk about climate change and what to do about it, one of the core issues of debate has been how to apportion the responsibility of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, in a fair and equitable manner.

The inheritance of this carbon-dioxide burden, is not equal among countries. Historically, some are more responsible than others. The issue of who will do how much, and in what proportion to their historical resposibilities (called 'Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) in climate jargon), has become an issue without whose resolution a solution to climate change is not likely. 

India has historically hardlined for this CBDR principle (as have most developing countries), but has stuck to a per-capita approach to emissions.The arguement has long been that the per capita emissions of an average Indian are much lower than even the global average, and that India and Indians therefore, have the 'right to develop' (since development implies an increase in emissions). 

Recently however, there has been some independent thinking from scientists and academicians within India, asking for a reasessment of the per capita approach. Key scientific associations involved in the debate are the Delhi Science Forum (DSF) and the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS). These and other organisations including the Centre for Policy and Resarch, have been pushing the Indian government to look at a slightly different approach to emissions, considering the rapid rate with which India's emissions are growing.

In this context, TISS has come out with a model that reallocates the available 'carbon space' of the atmosphere while ensuring that the total sum of emissions does not exceed the estimated dangerous limit. The model has been constructed based on a realistic evaluation of the current occupation of carbon space by countries. 

The report indicates that many developing countries have not utilised their full proportion of 'available' carbon space (subject to industrialised countries that currently use up that space making it available for countries like India), which is close to 17% of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by 2050, while carbon space is around 4 %.

Admitted, India needs to develop in order to alleviate poverty, raise standards of living and increase capacity to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. But can it do so while making a conscious effort to move towards a low-carbon economy, and not utilise its full quota of future carbon space?

Read the report:  Meeting equity in a finite carbon world

Summertime and the fish are not jumpin

By: Viva Kermani

While mercury soars across the sub continent, parts of the wettest state, Kerala, suffers from drought. This is unusual for God s own country. It is also unusual for the garden city, Bangalore, to touch 38 degrees centigrade. It is unusual that there are no glaciers in the summer months, even 40 km around Srinagar's east-side mountains. While Rajasthan is known for its desert heat, it is unusual that many of its districts are experiencing about 6 degree centigrade temperature increase.

But this is not about an unbearable summer where everything and everyone seems to wilt away and there is general listlessness. This is really about some myths and reality.

The myth is that climate has always changed so this is normal. The reality is that the climate is changing at a speed like never before.
The myth is that we can wait. The reality is that we have no time.
The myth is that climate change action is costly. The reality is that inaction will cost us more.
The myth is that money grows on trees . The reality is that it actually does.
The myth is that we can change – the reality is that we can t change fast enough.

Why we need Mr. Paryavaran Bhavan (Jairam Ramesh)

By: Kaavya Nag

Is it that we never expected to see someone, that too a political someone like Jairam Ramesh, take the reins of his new job, hit the ground running, show such corporate-style efficiency and competence, and be so clued-in about the whole thing?

Not in our dictionary of expectations: Ability to be efficient, ability to 'see my point of view', be a Blackberry-modern thinker.

Unstated fact: we credit them with little intelligence, expect them to turn a deaf ear to issues they should care about (which includes what we care about).

But let’s face it, Ramesh is a capable and well-connected politician with a mission, one entrusted to him by the PM. 

Said Dr Singh: “India has not caused the problem of global warming. But try and make sure that India is part of the solution. Be constructive; be proactive”

Ramesh could well have taken his role in international climate politics extra-seriously, and remain the de-facto Indian ambassador for climate change. But he carries out his domestic (and real job-profile) duties with the same amount of rigour. Ramesh has pushed for setting a framework in place – whether on policies, systems of operation or regulations. Things that will last even after he is gone from the post. One of the first things he did, to show his commitment to transparency, was to change the wooden doors of his office to glass. (If I were an under-the-table-dealings minister who took his place, would I be unable to re-install the wooden doors or what!)

So while we may disagree with some of the policies he pushes for, or with the way in which some policies have turned out, we cannot question his integrity.
Despite his wrong-place (when in China) and inappropriate statements on an issue that did not concern his ministry (it did the Home Ministry), or his many vocal statements in the past concerning environmental issues (India will win the Nobel Prize for dirt and filth if there was one, locking horns with transport minister Kamal Nath over environment clearances), he continues to do his job as environment minister with considerable efficacy. (Pray why is an environment minister (no lesser rank mind you), asking legitimate questions about environment clearances frowned upon for asking them?)

In our defense (and there are gaping holes in it), no previous environment minister has set the precedent for such efficacious and even prolific productivity. 

Citizen consultations (what’s that?) on BT Brinjal, follow-up actions (!) regarding cancellation of environmental clearance (really?), inviting comments (inviting comments – are you sure?) on ToR for Elephant Task Force, sector-specific EIA manuals that will provide users and other stakeholders greater clarity about the environmental clearance project (again, really?), a paperless National CDM Authority (not bad), pollution indices for major industrial clusters…

All of the above and many more, all on a website that is updated as fast as a private news-channel (transparency again).

We didn't expect this much yaar! That, really, is our defense.

So even if you sensationalise the man’s many foot-in-mouth statements, and dull some of the sheen on his productivity by saying not all of the output was beneficial, admit that India has never had such a capable, intelligent and go-getter environment minister. None have been as approachable or responsive, and none have been as committed to ‘doing the job’. And none have been as cool.

Never before has the environment ministry and minister made as many headlines or environment and environment issues got so much national coverage. If not a Nobel Prize we can certainly ask for a Limca record for maximum headlines from an environment ministry.

To poke more holes in our defense, Jaago Re! This is the 21st century, and we need to expect our netas to deliver on more counts than 12th standard pass, no criminal records and Lok Sabha attendance (in a white Ambi).

At the end of the day, we need Ramesh just where he is, and definitely not outside the Ministry of Environment and Forests.

India give us a number!

By: Kaavya Nag

A mid-October European Commission conference might have severely dampened our hopes of any flesh to a Copenhagen deal (the flesh itself is highly conditional and must be palatable to 192 plus nation states) anytime soon. Nevertheless, while ambitious hopes for Copenhagen may have come crashing down, what we do have is a political statement to be issued by end of COP – to be produced by the Danes as a possible basis for the upcoming negotiations starting December 7th.

If one thought that the political agreement would be easier to broker, fresh developments come from the BASIC quarter. Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC) –through China’s initiative, have prepared a counter-draft. They now have a ten-page draft that details the ‘non-negotiables’ as far as the developing giants are concerned, that will be released in Copenhagen by China’s special envoy on climate change, Xie Zhenzua. Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Environment and Forests rushed to Beijing to represent India at the meet held on Friday 27th, and while he admits that he had no inkling of such a draft-in-making, he is inclined to agree that the four developing giants are in full agreement with one another on the points of no negotiation. In any case, such an initiative from China shows they have taken a ‘leadership role’ in the Minister’s own words.

Amidst all the brouhaha, India’s Solar Mission – officially now okayed by Parliament - went unnoticed. Could this possibly be because India is putting forward missions (and drafts of missions) without any absolute calculations as to emission reductions that would result from such actions? Why does the Indian government fear mapping even five possible trajectories of emission growth up to 2030 and then estimating – in theory only – a deviation from business as usual if all these missions and related plans were to be implemented by then? Why, that would give us a lot more bargaining power that just releasing and tom-toming missions wouldn’t it?

One hopes India’s negotiators have this card up their sleeve. If they were to put down a number, a figure, and suggest that by implementing India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change and all other allied climate-friendly policies, India’s emissions would drop by say 20 percent below ‘Business As Usual’ by 2030, or to put it in a more convoluted way, that India’s rate of emission increase would decreased by 2.234% (completely hypothetical figures) each year in exponential fashion until 2030.

‘The number’ so to speak, need not imply taking that number into a legal agreement. It just means making things clear to the world in these nebulous times, that India too is capable of commitments and emission cuts, and is as serious if not more about climate change as the rest of the nation states.

Firm in their belief: Himalayan glaciers not retreating 'rapidly'

By: Kaavya Nag

The Ministry of Environment and Forests has recently released a discussion paper reviewing glacial studies and glacial retreat in India. Minister Jairam Ramesh has a clear caveat in the report that the views so expressed are not endorsed by the Union of India, and that it is only mean to ‘stimulate discussion’. Interestingly, India does not have a position on glacier retreat in the Himalayas.

Prepared ex deputy chairman of the Geological Survey of India V.K. Raina, the paper provides a summary of the literature on glacier studies so far, but its main claim to fame is that it challenges internationally accepted views that the Himalayan glaciers are receding due to climate change. It says there is little evidence for the same, and that ‘none of the glaciers under monitoring are recoding abnormal retreat’.

Data from a large proportion of the studies considered in this report indicate that glacier mass balance – a measure of the difference between melting and sublimation – is negative, and that most monitored glaciers have retreated since the earliest records. Nevertheless (and despite credible evidence from around the world and closer home - China, Nepal, Bhutan), concluding remarks suggest ‘glaciers in the Himalayas, although shrinking in volume and constantly showing a retreating front, have not in any way exhibited, especially in recent years, an abnormal annual retreat…’.

Of note also, is the fact that ‘recent years’ implies 2007-2009 – a period of time that is clearly far too short to come to such sweeping conclusions, particularly on climate-related studies.

While the report suggests that the Sonapani glacier has retreated 500 m in the last century, the Kangriz glacier has ‘practically not retreated even an inch’. These statements however, are not backed by studies, neither does the ‘even an inch’ give an indication of the exact measure. In direct contrast, photographs of these glaciers in the report clearly show significant retreat – but it might be that photographs are not sufficient evidence.

The report also suggests that while glaciers are climate indicators, they need not respond to ‘immediate climatic changes’ for if that were the case, all glaciers in the region would retreat ‘equally’. Nevertheless, elsewhere in the report, an uneven retreat pattern across nearby glaciers has been justified on the grounds of local variations.

The report omits references to key scientific literature including GSI survey and studies including Vohra (1981) on Satluj River Basin glaciers, Shukla and Siddiqui (1999) on Milam glacier, all indicating significant retreat, and other scientific including the WWF (2005) report and the ICIMOD (2007) satellite-based studies and reviews on Himalayan glaciers across India, Nepal and China. It ignores known fact that small glaciers in the Bhutan (not so far away, as one may well see), have disappeared completely.

Glacier changes are recognized as high-confident climate indicators, and even considered as evidence for climate change by the IPCC. Reports from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) indicate that measurements taken over the last century ‘clearly reveal a general shrinkage of mountain glaciers on a global scale’ (WGMS report). Despite this, this report suggests that ‘to postulate that a glacier can warn of climate changes likely to take place in the future is a big question mark’. In that case, even the IPCC might be wrong in assuming that rapid glacier retreat (even in the Himalayas) is a confident indicator of climate change!

The report awaits ‘many centuries’ of data to conclude that glacier snout movements are a result of ‘periodic climate variation’ or to make a statement that glaciers in the Himalayas are ‘retreating abnormally because of global warming’.

Healthy internal debate on India climate stand missing

By: Kaavya Nag

The Indian high command has been gunning for a change in image and a slight shift of position on climate change. In what is internationally being acknowledged as a welcome move, minster of Environment and Forests, Jairam Ramesh has been globe trotting and publicising India's actions and future plans on climate change.

In China he said India could benefit from Chinese collaboration on climate. Back home in India he agreed we had a long way to go. Soon after in the United States, at the UN climate summit he vociferously emphasised India was keen to be a deal-maker, and show leadership on climate issues.

Apart from speaking of  domestic plans, he publicly stated the possibility of a national bill on climate mitigation, implicit or soft targets, and the possible formation of a National Climate Change Mitigation Authority, that would direct and guide mitigation efforts and aspirational targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions. There has also been recent reference to making the process of reporting on mitigation cuts more transparent and accountable. These are welcome moves that show that India can be a leader in the climate debate.

However, Opposition silence on this key issue is worrying. Agreed that the UPA has a strong majority in Parliament - enough to silence any serious dissent. But amidst all this frenetic political activity, a robust dialogue on this hot issue is seriously lacking. The opposition has neither welcomed the move, nor slammed it. They only 'unofficially' or 'softly' think that politicians are undermining the 'hard-fought' stand on climate change, and that there is little political discussion or consensus before taking a decision on such vital matters.

Surely the BJP (after handling their internal crisis) and the Communists can voice their concerns at the least? Or is the future of 500 million people by 2050 not worth the effort of debating? Jairam Ramesh says internal political dialogue and consensus is an essential - it is most important that future governments carry forward the stands and positions taken now. Flip flop in 2020 is not an option clearly, so why the silence?

Climate Security: Himalayas on Thin Ice

By: Kaavya Nag

Climate change is no longer just about tackling and solving an environmental and social crisis. Nor is it just about changing the energy challenge. It is also being recognized as a challenge that carries serious implications for international peace.

With seven nations, two economic giants, mountain territory, unclear and contested borders and a fair number of ongoing disputes, the Himalayan region is a potent mix of elements already on thin ice.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC), the mean annual temperature in the Tibetan plateau and the Himalayan region is expected to go up by 3.8 °C.  Will rapidly melting glaciers and permanently ice-covered regions alter high-altitude battlefields, and exacerbate conflict to even higher heights? Will global warming change the dynamics between India, China and Pakistan – the three key players in the region?

The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are regions with large-scale military presence, and have been marked with the sounds of war ever since India’s Independence and the formation of Pakistan in 1947, and the establishment of the Republic of China in 1949.

Whether on the Aksai Chin, the Baltoro, Siachen, Kargil, Arunachal, Sikkim, Sino-Bhutan border, Tibet, or the Karakoram, the Abode of the Gods has always been a hotly contested region. War at 14,000 feet has always been strategically too important to too many nations to give up without a serious fight.

Given the history of high-level conflict in the region, de-militarisation is out of the question in the foreseeable future. However, the Himalayas are strategically sensitive for more important reasons. Seven major rivers are fed by Himalayan glaciers - their waters feed an estimated 1 billion people. The ice that feeds them is melting fast, and this also has serious implications for glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides in the region.

Access to water is likely to become a key security issue for India, China and all Himalayan states, as they try to maintain high economic growth rates and sustain large agrarian populations.

That is not all. Climate refugees are likely to be a serious issue to deal with especially in the high altitudes. High altitude disasters will become more frequent with climate change, and armed forces play an important role in providing timely aid, rescue and in rebuilding infrastructure - a role that will possibly take up a considerable portion of their time in the near future.

A report published by Indian military think tank, Institute for defense studies and analyses (IDSA) attempted to understand the geopolitical dimensions of climate change.

The Indian government has announced its willingness to cooperate with Pakistan on the issue of climate change. India has also initiated work with China on glacier research, although it is wary of ‘Chinese scientists walking all over Indian glaciers’ (read caution after 1962).

These processes mark the start of crucial trans boundary dialogues outside of border disputes that will play an important role in de-escalating overt security tension in the Himalayas and hopefully moving towards a more secure region.

Ref: Pai, N; April 2008; Indian National Interest Policy Brief.